By Sarupya Ganguly
BENGALURU, Nov 3 (Reuters) – The US dollar will slip in coming months according to FX strategists polled by Reuters who have clung to their long-held bearish view running into Tuesday’s midterm elections, saying the main risk is a more resilient greenback than they predict.
An October 30-November 3 Reuters survey ahead of elections that will decide whether President Donald Trump’s Republican Party keeps control of Congress showed forecasters barely changed their outlook from early October.
“Our outlook for next year is depreciation can resume…That said, risks are pointing towards the dollar being held up or more resilient for longer,” said Alex Cohen, FX strategist at Bank of America.
He cited strong US growth and stubborn inflation that has run above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for nearly six years as the main reasons. The Fed paused hiking borrowing costs last month after a rise in September. Rate futures are pricing in around two more Fed rate increases, starting again next month.
Still, FX strategists in Reuters polls, who as a group have underestimated the dollar’s strength for most of this year, expect it to weaken.
Median views from 66 forecasters put the euro, currently around $1.12, at $1.13 in three months, $1.14 in six and around 4% higher to $1.16 in a year.
But about 60% of strategists who answered an extra question, 17 of 30, said the dollar was more likely to top their three-month forecasts than fall short.
In recent weeks the greenback has held remarkably firm even as worries over the AI investment boom dragged stocks lower and investors piled into US Treasuries. The benchmark 10-year yield has fallen nearly 45 basis points since October 7 to below 5%.
“The Fed may be behind the curve…but the dollar is definitely not keeping up with usual catalysts, which tells me it needs to get moving,” said Erik Nelson, global head of FX strategy at Wells Fargo, predicting the euro at $1.16 at year-end.
But Nelson doubted higher rates alone would bring inflation down without a sharper hit to stocks and spending.
“If interest rates go up to 5% and equities only fall 5% or 7%, inflation is not going to come down. If…equities fall 25%, then maybe we have a conversation,” he said.
STRONG DEMOCRATIC SHOWING ‘IN THE PRICE’
On Tuesday’s elections, BofA’s Cohen said “a strong Democrat showing should be well in the price.”
A surprise Republican sweep of races that leaves them in control of both houses of Congress, he added, “probably sees equities, rates and the dollar all move higher.”
Much will hinge on the future of the US-Israeli war with Iran. Now in its ninth month with no sign of ending, it has kept oil over $105 a barrel and risks further entrenching inflation pressure.
“In the immediate aftermath of the vote, investors will focus on any indication that the Trump administration could re-escalate the conflict in Iran and thus boost the appeal of the high-yielding, safe-haven king dollar across the board,” said Valentin Marinov, head of G10 FX at Credit Agricole CIB, in a written response.
Speculators are net-long the dollar heading into the vote, the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed.
Asked how positions would change by end-November, 13 of 25 respondents expected only a little adjustment while 5 saw net-longs increasing. The rest expected them to shrink.
“Relative to where the consensus thought we would be (for euro-dollar) at the end of 2026, we’re a lot lower. And that is something the market is coming to terms with,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, among the few forecasting a strong dollar well into 2027.
“But we’d need to see another surprise, another part of the news flow, to make us drop below $1.10,” she added.
(Other stories from the November Reuters foreign exchange poll)
(Reporting by Sarupya Ganguly; Polling by Aman Kumar Soni and Nushaiba Iqbal; Editing by Ross Finley)
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