By Libby George and Rodrigo Campos
LONDON/NEW YORK, July 13 (Reuters) – The scale of Venezuela’s debt burden – and the mix of creditors holding it – will help determine the losses investors face in what could be one of the largest sovereign debt restructurings in history.
Venezuela has not published comprehensive debt statistics in years, and 2017 sanctions largely isolated it from the Western financial world. Caracas had previously said it aimed to complete a full debt assessment by the end of June.
On Monday, government economic adviser Calixto Ortega said the government would present a debt sustainability analysis “in the coming weeks,” while incorporating the economic impact of last month’s earthquakes into its restructuring framework.
It remains unclear whether any detailed assessment will be shared more broadly.
Most analysts estimated debts of $150 billion to $200 billion, but the Financial Times reported Venezuela was set to unveil a larger-than-expected debt pile of $240 billion.
Here are some details on what we know – and don’t know – about Venezuela’s debt stock:
HOW MUCH DOES CARACAS OWE ON BONDS?
Venezuela said in May it intends to restructure outstanding external commercial Eurobond debt issued by the government and state oil company Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA.
These total about $60 billion in face value, but have also been accruing interest since the 2017 default. JPMorgan calculates total bond claims, including past-due interest, at $102 billion.
Different terms could complicate a deal.
A 2020 PDVSA bond is backed by a majority stake in U.S. refiner Citgo. Some older bonds are more vulnerable to holdout litigation.
There is also a $650 million electricity-sector bond issued by Electricidad de Caracas, known as Elecar.
HOW MUCH DOES VENEZUELA OWE TO OTHER GOVERNMENTS?
Venezuela’s total bilateral lending accounts for roughly $25 billion, based on reports.
Bilateral creditors are often first to restructure. The Paris Club — a group of 22 official creditor nations — usually helps set the benchmark for debt relief expected from other creditors.
Venezuela owes Paris Club members $8.69 billion.
Russia alone extended at least two loans over the past 15 years, including $3.2 billion restructured in 2017, according to AidData.
Venezuela also owes China a substantial amount through oil-backed loans that could give Beijing an edge over other creditors. JPMorgan estimates those obligations at $13 billion to $15 billion.
Beijing condemned the redirection of Venezuelan oil exports in early January, and said “legitimate rights and interests of China and other countries in Venezuela must be protected”.
Venezuela has been vague about plans for official debt, saying that would be addressed through “institutional normalization” without detailing the process or whether this would involve a formal restructuring.
WHAT DOES CARACAS OWE TO MULTILATERAL LENDERS?
The country owes about $4 billion to multilateral development banks, according to Fitch, chiefly to Caracas-headquartered CAF Development Bank of Latin America and the Caribbean and the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB).
Such institutions typically enjoy preferred creditor status and are not expected to take losses in a restructuring.
HOW MUCH DO ARBITRATION CLAIMS AND COURT AWARDS AMOUNT TO?
More than 50 companies have pursued claims against Venezuela and PDVSA following expropriations under former President Hugo Chavez.
Data compiled by Transparencia Venezuela and #PublicDebtIsPublic show arbitration awards and court judgments at more than $20 billion, excluding past due interest, though the latter group warns its data might not necessarily capture all claims. Some creditors are seeking recovery through the court-ordered sale of Citgo Petroleum – which requires U.S. approval.
Arbitration awards and court judgements are legally enforceable claims held by diverse creditors with no collective mechanism to bind them into a negotiated deal. Accounting for at least 10% of Venezuela’s debt stock, experts say they will need to be addressed.
AND THEN THE REST…
The upper band of debt estimates is roughly $200 billion – where is the remaining $40 billion?
Some debts never went to court or arbitration, making them harder to track.
For example, Spanish oil firm Repsol says Venezuela owes it €4.55 billion ($5.16 billion), while Italy’s ENI said its own back-due PDVSA bill hit $3.3 billion by end-2025, including around $1 billion in accrued interest.
Other claims may include promissory notes – legally binding IOUs linked to export or supplier credits.
Domestic debt could also add to the tally, which concerned some investors, as it would be trickier to unpick whether these are legitimate.
Without an external audit or involvement from institutions such as the IMF or World Bank, investors may question how claims are assessed and which debts are included. Venezuela ranked 180th out of 182 countries and territories in Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index.
Claims deemed valid enough to be included for the debt restructuring perimeter could prove contentious as including them could boost the debt total and force larger losses for creditors.
($1 = €0.8818)
(Reporting by Libby George in London and Rodrigo Campos in New York; editing by Karin Strohecker and Chizu Nomiyama)
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