By Laura Gottesdiener and Diego Oré
MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – In late November, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump sent shockwaves through global trade by threatening 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, effectively ripping up a regional trade agreement, if the two countries didn’t do more to curb migration and the flow of drugs.
It was a big test for Mexico’s new President Claudia Sheinbaum, the country’s first female leader who had taken office just eight weeks earlier. Analysts thought the scientist-turned-politician might be too rigid and reserved to navigate the volatile U.S. leader with the relative aplomb of her predecessor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador.
Now, as Trump prepares to take office, Sheinbaum has publicly sparred with the incoming U.S. president, but also shown concrete results that could help show Mexico is serious about cooperating on migration, security and China.
It is hard to know if that will be enough, or if the threat of tariffs on Trump’s first day in power is wholly realistic, but experts and former diplomats say Sheinbaum has made a solid start.
“It’s a very pragmatic and proactive approach by Sheinbaum and her team,” said Gema Kloppe-Santamaria, a global fellow of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute.
Trump has repeatedly accused the Mexican government of not doing enough to stop migrants and drugs from entering the U.S. and has threatened sweeping tariffs to force more action. He has also railed against Chinese plants setting up shop in Mexico.
But since taking office, Sheinbaum has intensified an already historic crackdown against migrants traveling toward the U.S. border by detaining an unprecedented 475,000 migrants between October and December and has left open the possibility that Mexico might be willing to accept non-Mexicans deported from the United States.
Her government has also seized a record 1,100 kilograms of illicit fentanyl, and unveiled new tariffs against some Asian goods and confiscated counterfeit Chinese products in several Mexican cities.
“She’s sending this message that she is a strong political leader,” said Kloppe-Santamaria, pointing to recent polling that shows Sheinbaum has increased her popularity to a staggering 80% approval rating after her first 100 days in office.
“Trump without a doubt comes with a lot of power and legitimacy, but she does as well,” Kloppe-Santamaria added.
Reuters spoke to seven economic analysts, former Mexican diplomats, and academic experts in Mexican politics. Most praised Sheinbaum’s strategy for engaging with Trump.
“This commitment that Mexico has shown to fully align its interests with those of the U.S. is what makes us more confident that President Claudia Sheinbaum and President-elect Donald Trump will pull through the initial threats and uncertainty,” said Rodolfo Ramos, an analyst at Banco Bradesco.
MEXICO HAS MUCH TO LOSE
The incoming U.S. leader is known for being unpredictable, but Sheinbaum has also maintained an element of surprise, said Jorge Guajardo, a former Mexican ambassador to China. While she’s suggested Mexico could retaliate with its own tariffs, she’s refrained from tipping her hand.
“She’s been very smart and strategic,” he said. “She wants to keep her powder dry.”
Mexico is one of the countries with the most to lose in a second Trump presidency, said former Mexican ambassador to the United States Arturo Sarukhan.
The U.S. is far and away Mexico’s largest trading partner, and the Republican leader’s threatened tariffs could send shockwaves through Mexico’s economy. He has also vowed mass deportations that could strain Mexico’s job market and spark humanitarian and security challenges in a country already grappling with violence, internal displacement, and sluggish economic growth.
Then there’s Trump’s threats of unilateral U.S. military action against drug cartels inside Mexico, which “is basically an act of war,” Sarukhan said.
Sarukhan warned that U.S.-Mexico relations could be more volatile than in decades and that Mexico City needed to be prepared for Trump’s second administration to be even more difficult for Mexico than the first.
But Sheinbaum appears to have a well-prepared playbook. The steps her government has taken might be sufficient, for now.
“I think these measures are enough to establish a floor for the negotiations and keep Trump from imposing tariffs on day one,” said Matias Gomez, an analyst at consulting firm Eurasia Group.
“However, this threat will act as a sword of Damocles throughout 2025 as a latent risk that will allow Trump to pressure Sheinbaum on multiple fronts.”
(Reporting by Diego Ore in Mexico City and Laura Gottesdiener in Monterrey, Editing by Stephen Eisenhammer and Alistair Bell)
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