Former President Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Green Bay, April 2, 2024. PC: Fox 11 Online
GREEN BAY, WI (WTAQ-WLUK) — While there are many ways to view how former President Donald Trump’s guilty verdict might impact government and politics, local experts say this could just be the start.
“We’re crossing into new waters here, new precedents have been established,” says Jerald Podair, a history professor at Lawrence University in Appleton. “I would be willing to predict – historians can’t always predict the future – but I think I can confidently predict this will not be the last time, and it’s quite possible that other former presidents of both parties may start seeing the inside of jail cells.”
Trump addressed the verdict in a news conference at Trump Tower on Friday.
While it’s unlikely to happen, Podair says putting Trump in jail could have larger implications for the political system.
“Really what you think about as a democracy is precedent.,” he adds. “What is going to happen in the future after this, in other situations. As tempting as it may be to say put him in jail, throw him in jail, take his rights away, it’s very clear this situation is going to present itself again in the future and as a democracy, we have to ask ourselves, do we really want to go down this road?”
While there’s no parallel, he compares it to when former President Nixon was pardoned by President Ford after the Watergate scandal.
“At the time, that pardon was severely criticized and may have contributed to Ford losing reelection in 1976. But historians and I think Americans generally looking back at that say it was the right thing. It was the right thing to do because the nation and the democracy didn’t need any more turmoil. The damage had already been done, Nixon’s political career and personal life had really been ruined and that was enough and the nation then had to move forward. I would say in these criminal conviction situations, we should start thinking about that because democracy is the long game. You play the long game, you worry about what will it be like 50 or 100 years from now if we have this as a precedent.”
Podair also adds that it may have been more beneficial for Trump’s other indictments to go to the courts first.
“This one happened to come to trial first but I think it would’ve been better for our system if the more serious offenses had come before these because you have a large swath of the country saying at this point that it’s not important enough, that it’s not serious enough. A felony is a felony is a felony but, some felonies are much more serious than others and this is less serious than interfering with an election either on the state or federal level.”
President Biden spoke on the verdict Friday from the Oval Office.
But when it comes to the November presidential election.
“Humans are really good at finding reasons not to believe bad things about somebody they like and I think there’s been a history with Trump of assuming that scandalous things would really change voters’ opinions of him, and history has shown that generally to be false,” says Charles Franklin, the director of the Marquette Law School Poll.
Before and during the trial, the poll was getting the pulse of national and local communities.
“Early in the poll we ask who you would vote for, Biden or Trump or someone else, and in that first question, Trump led by 4%,” says Franklin. “But then late in the questionnaire, we gave them a scenario saying suppose it turns out Trump is found guilty, and we repeat who would you vote for. In that guilty scenario, Biden led by 4% after trailing by 4% in the initial question.”
As they prepare to poll voters following the guilty verdict, they’re not expanding wild changes.
“Remember, we have seen big events with Trump in the past that seem to make almost no difference to his standing,” Franklin says. “The first impeachment would be a good example of that where we did extra polling to follow through the entire impeachment process and almost nothing changed over that period. So there is a good reason to be skeptical that this makes a big difference overall.”
But Franklin says what is important is tracking how voters’ views are shaped over time, instead of trying to predict future outcomes.
“When the first indictment came down, we did see an initial rally around Trump among Republicans. But, this process has been going on for a long time, and I think it’s an open question whether another rally will take place now, or if it will go the other way, that those who’ve had reservations about him within the party now have more reason to think about voting for someone else whether that’s Biden or the third party.”
Ultimately, though, Franklin adds:
“It’s a close race, it was a close race, it’s likely to end up a close race, but who is getting a little bit of an advantage is what we’ll look for in coming polls and also whether those advantages last.”
The next Marquette Law School Poll is expected to be released in the coming weeks.
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