DALLAS, TX (WTAQ) – It’s the expected against the unexpected Sunday in North Texas. The NFL’s Super Wild Card Weekend features 6 games starting Saturday afternoon through Monday night and the one matchup only the most die hard fans possibly saw coming was the contest slotted for 3:30 CST on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys host the Green Bay Packers.
Dallas was the expected participant. In his 4th season as Head Coach, former Packers Head Coach Mike McCarthy has led the Cowboys to a third straight, 12 win campaign, earning the NFC East Championship. The rabid Cowboy faithful have even higher expectations for it’s been nearly 30 years since Dallas has gotten past the Divisional Round and played in the NFC Championship Game.
Fair to say the most unexpected squad in the 14 team NFL Playoff pool is the Packers. Even though Head Coach Matt LaFleur has taken his team to the post-season for the 4th time in his five years on the job, it wasn’t supposed to happen this year. Yet here they are, at 9-8, thanks to the expanded playoff field, it landed them the 7th and final seed in the NFC. Since the Packers lost to the Cowboys in the 1995 NFC Championship game, Green Bay has enjoyed sustained post-season success, winning two Super Bowls and advancing to the conference final 6 other times.
Before figuring out who will take the first step toward the ultimate game, we’ll wrap up the Wild Card Week in Titletown.
Even with a lengthy injury report (19 names), the Packers have listed only one player as doubtful and that’s fullback A.J. Dillon who is dealing with a neck injury along with a still healing broken thumb.
Jaire Alexander’s freak ankle injury, accidentally stepping on a teammate’s foot and rolling in on Wednesday has him listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. He hasn’t practiced all week. The only other questionable player is Christian Watson who is trying to return to the field for the first time in six weeks because of a hamstring injury. He appeared to be running smoothly at practice.
Fellow wide receiver Romeo Doubs has gotten past the chest injury which knocked him out of last week’s game against the Bears and he should be good to go. If Watson plays, the Packers will at long last have their full compliment of wide receivers at Jordan Love’s disposal.
A minor personnel move was made Friday as the Packers re-signed defensive back David Long to the practice squad, releasing veteran running back Kenyon Drake.
The team also announced they would push back their departure to Dallas by a couple of hours on Saturday after eastern Wisconsin got buried in a wicked winter blizzard. The 10 to 15 inches kept me stuck in Green Bay as air travel was cancelled. Crossing fingers I’ll find my way to Dallas with planes, trains and automobiles, whatever it takes.
When the Packers have the ball.
Having all the pass catchers will help, as will continued strong play from one of the best pass protecting offensive lines in the league but the two key players will be Aaron Jones and Love. Jones was the centerpiece of LaFleur’s offensive plan from the start this season only to have him at full strength for less than a quarter of the schedule. He’s right now and the impact is unmistakable, allowing Love to unfurl page after page of the playbook that dovetails off everything Jones can provide. Jones has had explosive games against the Cowboys in the past and could be in line for another. Watson had the breakout game of his rookie season against Dallas at Lambeau last year and even if he doesn’t find the end zone three times, he’ll be able to pull defenders away from spaces teammates will be entering. The return of Luke Musgrave at tight end can do the same thing. Job one for the big boys however, is locating Micah Parsons. The Dallas sack leader is deployed everywhere across the front 7 as the Cowboys look to find and then exploit winnable one on one pass rushing matchups. Too much focus on the Pro Bowler creates opportunities for Demarcus Lawrence and Johnathan Hankins up front. The Dallas pressure has forced plenty of quarterback mistakes and corner DaRon Bland has been the biggest beneficiary with his league leading 9 interceptions and NFL record five returned for touchdowns this year. The Cowboys can be too anxious to make the splash play at times, gambling and losing, giving up big plays the other way. Love needs avoid the mistake, accept the checkdowns and simply keep playing the way he has for two months to keep the scoreboard operator busy.
When the Cowboys have the ball.
Somehow, Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry’s unit will have to defuse the Cowboy explosion. At home, they have been nearly unstoppable with Dak Prescott dialing up a league high 36 touchdowns this season, 12 going to CeeDee Lamb who led the NFL with 135 catches on nearly 200 targets. Veteran Brandin Cooks has 8 touchdowns, tight end Jake Ferguson, the former Wisconsin Badger has 71 catches and running back Tony Pollard piled up more than 300 touches with 1000 yards rushing and 55 catches. McCarthy has been at his play calling best this year, producing 30 points a game on average and topping 40 points at home four times. So where do you start? Before Alexander’s mishap, I had a feeling Barry was going to match him up with Lamb all day but that appears less likely now. The front seven will have to keep the run game in check and stay as disciplined in their pass rush as they were against Justin Fields last week. Only problem is they’ll have to get to the quarterback even faster. Prescott’s average release time is among the league’s quickest, finding receivers on the move. He won’t bolt as much as he did in his younger days and even though the Dallas offensive line has a couple of Pro Bowl players in Zack Martin and Tyron Smith, this hasn’t been their best year at protecting Prescott. Teams typically get around 8 to 12 possessions a game, the Packers have to find ways to come up with 4 to 6 stops or Dallas will ring up another North Dallas 40 points.
Don’t forget the teams.
Even though Kesisean Nixon was named to the AP All Pro first team as the kick returner for a second straight season, the Packer special teams play declined this year for Coordinator Rich Bisaccia. Remember the last playoff game at AT&T between these two clubs in 2016? Can you top this 50 yard field goals in the final couple of minutes from Dan Bailey and Mason Crosby, who’s 51 yard walk off boot gave Green Bay a 34-31 victory. (The Aaron Rodgers third and 20 conversion to Jared Cook set it up). Could Anders Carlson and Brandon Aubrey do the same? Carlson has kicked in this stadium once, when Auburn played a season opener against Oregon a few years back. Aubrey was 10 for 10 from 50+ in his rookie year. My guess is one could blink under the pressure.
The bottom line.
Yes, the Cowboys are the expected playoff team but they have to be feeling some of the pressure expecting them to make a deep run, if not reach the Super Bowl. The longer the Packers, playing with house money, stay in this game, the more intense pressure will be applied. Love and the offense should give a good accounting of themselves and make Dallas work, just don’t thing the defense will get enough stops if they can’t turn ’em over. It’s been an unexpectedly fun year at 1265 Lombardi Avenue and even better days are ahead.
I’ll take the Cowboys 34-24.
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