GREEN BAY, WI (WTAQ) – NFC North…..check.
Goal number one was accomplished last week when the Packers held off the Ravens in Baltimore, clinching a third straight division title under Head Coach Matt LaFleur.
Next on the list is securing the number one seed in the conference. The Packers can take another step toward goal number two when the Cleveland Browns come calling on Christmas Day at Lambeau Field with a 3:30 PM CST kickoff. Green Bay couldn’t take advantage of home field advantage a year ago when in a nearly empty Lambeau, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers denied them a trip to the Super Bowl one step short, just like the San Francisco 49ers did at Levi’s Stadium two years ago. LaFleur’s third team is well aware of the unfinished business and despite a chaotic couple of weeks around the NFL with COVID-19 cases skyrocketing, the Packers will take a relatively virus free team into Saturday’s matchup against a Browns club that has been ravaged by positive cases.
Their game last week was postponed for two days and they still were without 22 players and their Head Coach in a last play loss at home to the Las Vegas Radiers. While Kevin Stefanski and a couple of players have cleared protocols, more positive tests keep coming, including former Packer center J.C. Tretter. That loss also crippled, but didn’t end Cleveland’s playoff hopes but I’ll be curious to see how much fight is left in that team. As of this posting, it’s still no clear if top two quarterbacks, Baker Mayfield and Case Keenum will be cleared to play.
Time to match it up.
When the Packers have the ball.
The franchise record for career touchdown passes is the featured storyline going into the game. Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre are all even at 442. All of the pass catchers have talked this week about how special it will be to be a part of history but they haven’t chipped in for a TD catch pool. Davante Adams would be the betting favorite but he’s caught more TD passes from Rodgers than anyone. My personal favorite choice would be tight end Marcedes Lewis. It won’t come easy against the Browns who rank 5th in the league on defense, they are 8th best against the pass but three of their best pass rushers may not be available. Takk McKinley definitely won’t, rupturing his Achilles tendon last Monday night. Jadeveon Clowney is in COVID protocol and Myles Garrett, one of the NFL sack leaders with 15, didn’t practice all week with a groin injury and is listed as questionable for the game. If Garrett does play, Yosh Nijman will draw the protection task at left tackle. Nijman has already faced four of the other five top five sack rushers in the league this year and has more than held his own.
Without Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Reserve/COVID-19), look for the aerial attack to focus on short to medium routes, allowing Rodgers to deliver the ball quickly and let the receivers continue to build on one of the best yards after the catch numbers in the league.
A December game on the tundra begs for a heavy dose of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. The offense ran effectively against Baltimore’s stout run defense but not nearly enough. They should be able to establish and maintain run production against Cleveland which will create winning play action possibilities.
The offense has piled up 30 points a game in a stretch that has secured goal number one, they should come close to that number again with a little franchise history thrown in for good measure.
When the Browns have the ball.
It was a relief to see Kenny Clark back on the practice field Thursday. While he hasn’t completely cleared COVID-19 protocols, he’s expected to and be on the field Saturday afternoon. His absence was noticeable against Baltimore. Run gaps were created which could spell trouble against the league’s 5th best rushing team, led by Nick Chubb with 1017 yards and a 5.4 yard per carry average. Equally problematic was the lack of pocket pressure up the middle Clark has provided all year. It forced edge rushers to take inside rush lanes and allowed Tyler Huntley to escape time and again. With Clark back in the middle, Chubb should have a tougher go of it and whomever is playing quarterback (possibly Nick Mullens for the second straight week), will find less room in the pocket to step up and hopefully, less room to escape. Tight ends are the Cleveland favorites in the passing game with Austin Hooper and David Njoku combining for 63 receptions this year. Baltimore’s Mark Andrews proved to be a handful for Darnell Savage and the defense last week.
If Mayfield, running back Kareem Hunt and top wide receiver Jarvis Landry all make it out of the COVID-19 protocols, Cleveland will have firepower to make things interesting but they haven’t been able to practice for over a week.
Control Chubb and the defense should be able to neutralize the Browns.
The bottom line.
The energy of a Christmas Day crowd welcoming home another division champion, ready to witness Rodgers history and the team’s drive to inch closer to staying home in January should be enough to deliver a knockout punch to Cleveland’s 2021 season.
I like the Pack 27-13.
Additional notes:
The three amigos. The Packers have three players on the 2021 NFC Pro Bowl roster. Aaron Rodgers broke another team record by being named to his 10th Pro Bowl team. He received the most votes at quarterback and would be the starter (if he doesn’t have somewhere else to play). Davante Adams made it five straight Pro Bowl teams, one off the team record of 6 for wide receivers, set by James Lofton. Kenny Clark made it back to back Pro Bowls becoming the first Packer defensive tackle so honored since Henry Jordan.
Aaron Jones was a first alternate at running back. De’Vondre Campbell (slighted in my opinion) is a second alternate at inside linebacker.
Last year the Packers led the league with 7 Pro Bowlers on a 13-3 team. The four that didn’t return (David Bakhtiari, Za’Darius Smith, Jaire Alexander and Elgton Jenkins) have missed most or all of this season and yet the Packers still have the best record in football. With one more win, LaFleur will tie the league record held by George Seifert of the 49ers with the most victories in his first three years as Head Coach with 38. Sounds like a convincing NFL Coach of the Year candidate to me.
