By Leika Kihara
TOKYO, July 10 (Reuters) – Japan’s wholesale inflation accelerated in June at the fastest pace in more than three years as firms aggressively passed on rising costs from the Middle East conflict, data showed on Friday, bolstering the case for further interest rate hikes.
The data came in the wake of a Bank of Japan report on Thursday warning that the pass-through of input costs was proceeding at a faster pace than in the past, and could lead to higher consumer inflation later this year.
The producer price index surged 7.1% in June from a year earlier, BOJ data showed, exceeding the median market forecast for a 6.8% increase and marking the fastest year-on-year rise since March 2023. It accelerated from a revised 6.6% gain in May.
“Wholesale inflation will remain elevated with negotiations between the U.S. and Iran hitting a roadblock. The impact of supply constraints and past rises in energy costs will also spread to prices for various goods,” said Masato Koike, senior economist at Sompo Institute Plus.
“If prices rise sharply for various goods, the BOJ may be forced to raise rates early including in October,” he said.
The spike in producer prices was driven by a 22.8% rise in fuel prices and a 39.2% jump in non-ferrous metals prices, the data showed, highlighting the impact of the war-induced energy shock and robust demand for AI-related raw materials.
A stubbornly weak yen also continued to push up the cost of raw material imports.
The yen-based import price index in June rose 29.7% from a year earlier, accelerating from a revised 26.1% gain in May and rising at the fastest pace since October 2022.
The data will be among factors the BOJ will scrutinise at this month’s policy meeting, when the board is set to keep rates steady but release fresh quarterly growth and price forecasts that could offer clues on the timing of the next rate hike.
The Middle East conflict has complicated the BOJ’s policy path, stoking inflation through higher oil prices while squeezing an economy dependent on imported fuel.
Recent data showed the economy weathering the hit from the Iran war. The BOJ’s “tankan” survey showed business mood hit an eight-year high and corporate inflation expectations rose to record levels, helping to make the case for more rate hikes.
In raising its policy rate to a 31-year high of 1% last month, the BOJ warned of mounting inflationary pressure from the Iran war by pointing to steady rises in wholesale inflation.
Most analysts polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise rates again to 1.25% by year-end.
The BOJ’s communication, however, may be complicated by the more modest increase in consumer prices. Core consumer inflation stayed below the BOJ’s 2% target for a fourth straight month in May, partly because government subsidies designed to shield households from rising fuel costs continued to dampen price pressures.
“While past oil price rises are pushing up wholesale prices, consumer prices are rising only moderately due to government steps,” Economy Minister Minoru Kiuchi, seen as an advocate of loose monetary policy, told a news briefing on Friday.
He also said the boost to inflation from a weak yen comes with a lag and was “not necessarily that large.”
(Reporting by Leika Kihara; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Shri Navaratnam and Tom Hogue)
Comments