By Jamie McGeever
ORLANDO, Florida, June 4 (Reuters) – Investors on Thursday latched onto the more encouraging aspects of mixed signals surrounding an end to war in the Middle East, pushing stocks higher and oil prices lower. Worries over AI weighed on tech, but other sectors did the heavy lifting, as attention now turns to U.S. employment data on Friday.
In my column today, I look at the U.S. labor market ahead of payrolls. It can hardly be characterized as strong, and some incoming numbers are warning flags. But overall, the data are pointing upward, suggesting a corner has been turned.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.
1. Fed’s Warsh inherits economy increasingly squeezed by inflation
2. First goes the Fed dot, then guidance – and then a hike?: Mike Dolan
3. Europe’s tech ‘liberation day’? Computer says not yet
4. Redemption requests rise at Blackstone, Partners Group as private markets strain
5. China to cut domestic retail gasoline, diesel prices from June 5
Today’s Key Market Moves
• STOCKS: Dow, Russell 2000 hit record highs. Asia lower, Europe higher, Brazil -2%.
• SECTORS/SHARES: Only two sectors in the S&P 500 fall: tech -1.4%, consumer staples -0.1%. Nine rise, led by financials +2.7%, healthcare +3%. Blackstone +7.5%, Humana +6.8%; Broadcom -12.6%, Micron Technology -7.7%.
• FX: Dollar dips a bit, USD/JPY hugs 160.00. Bitcoin -2% to 4-month low
• BONDS: U.S. yields down 2-4 bps, curve steepens: 2s/10s up from Tuesday’s 40 bps, flattest since “Liberation Day”.
• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil -3%.
Today’s Talking Points
* Calm and resilient
Wall Street’s performance on Thursday was noteworthy. After opening down more than 1%, the Nasdaq closed flat, and the S&P 500 also posted a percentage point low-to-close rebound. The Dow didn’t bother with the turnaround – it just rose, put on the afterburners, and closed up 1.7% at a new high.
Investors are buying any dip, almost regardless of the geopolitical, AI or macro news flow. And why not? Financial conditions are the loosest in years, and the VIX is around its lowest levels of the year. Zoom out, and 3-month euro/dollar implied vol’s dip below 5% this week for the first time since 2021 shows how serene markets are. At least on the surface.
* Private chancer
Negative headlines in private credit space are surfacing again. Investors in Blackstone’s flagship $79 billion private credit fund sought to pull out 10% of shares in Q2, up from 7.9% in Q1. Blackstone, the world’s largest alternative asset manager, capped withdrawals at 5%.
Cliffwater said on Tuesday that investors in its $31 billion private credit fund tried to redeem 17% of shares in Q2, but they were also capped at 5%. There have been plenty of similar examples in recent months, and there are likely to be plenty more.
* Bit-part player
Bitcoin hit a 4-month low on Thursday around $61,000. It has lost half its value since peaking above $126,000 in October, and is down 20% in the past two weeks. The move has snowballed after Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, said it has sold for the first time since 2022.
But some bulls are not losing faith. Geoff Kendrick at Standard Chartered, one of the most vocal crypto advocates, is sticking with his call of $100,000 by the end of the year. “When we look back at the end of 2026 with bitcoin at $100k we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he writes. Watch this space.
What could move markets tomorrow?
• Developments in the Middle East
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman speaks
• Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock testifies to Senate committee; Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks at separate event
• Japan household spending (April)
• Taiwan inflation (May)
• South Korea current account (April)
• India interest rate decision
• India GDP (Q1)
• Euro zone GDP (Q1, revised)
• Bank of England officials scheduled to speak include Governor Andrew Bailey, Swati Dhingra
• Canada PMIs (May)
• Canada employment (May)
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls (May)
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Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)
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