By Promit Mukherjee and Rod Nickel
OTTAWA (Reuters) – Canadians go to the polls on Monday after an election campaign in which U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and musings about annexing Canada became the central issue.
Trump’s threats ignited a wave of patriotism that swelled support for Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, a political newcomer who previously led two G7 central banks.
The campaign ended on a somber note on Sunday after a man rammed an SUV through a crowd at a Filipino community festival in Vancouver, killing at least 11 people and injuring dozens.
Carney briefly paused his campaign, and both he and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre mentioned the tragedy in their final campaign events.
It was unclear if the mass casualty event would have any impact on the election. Duane Bratt, professor of political science at Calgary’s Mount Royal University, said he did not expect it to deter voters.
Carney’s Liberals held a four-point lead over Poilievre’s Conservatives in separate polls by Ipsos and Angus Reid, suggesting little movement in the final days. Ipsos on Sunday pegged the Liberals at 42% support and the Conservatives at 38%.
Angus Reid’s Saturday poll placed the Liberals at 44% support, over the Conservatives’ 40% support.
Those results would likely produce a fourth consecutive Liberal mandate, but Carney might only win a minority of seats in the 343-seat House of Commons, leaving him reliant on smaller parties to govern.
Trump re-emerged as a campaign factor last week, declaring that he might raise a 25% tariff on Canadian-made cars because the U.S. does not want them. He said earlier he might use “economic force” to make Canada the 51st U.S. state.
“This is probably the most consequential election in my lifetime,” said Kelly Saunders, a political science professor at Brandon University. “Everything has been so overshadowed by the threats coming out of the United States.”
Carney has emphasized his experience handling economic issues makes him the best leader to deal with Trump, while Poilievre has tapped into concerns about the cost of living, crime and a housing crisis.
“I’m probably going to go Carney on this one just because right now, I feel like we need stability,” said Andy Hill, 37, a Vancouver-based mortgage broker and co-founder of mortgage marketplace EveryRate. “Being in the English banking system and being in the Canadian banking system, he really understands the economy.”
Bob Lowe, a 66-year-old cattle rancher who lives south of Calgary, said he has already cast his ballot for the Conservatives. He said his top concern is Canada’s flagging economic growth.
The economy had seen a fledgling recovery until the U.S. imposed tariffs.
Carney has sought to distance himself from former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who was deeply unpopular when he said in January he would resign after nearly a decade in power. The Conservatives led polls by some 20 points around that time.
CONSERVATIVES FOCUS ON ECONOMY
Lowe said the Conservatives have focused on the economy all along, and that he believes the Liberals have been stoking Canadians’ anxieties about Trump to win another term.
“Poilievre has managed to keep the focus on the economy and a strong Canada, and Carney’s campaign is based on fear. That’s it in a nutshell,” Lowe said.
Saunders, however, predicts the Liberals will win a majority of seats, and says it would take a “magical scenario” for the Conservatives to pull off a victory. Tensions with the U.S. have caused supporters of two smaller parties, the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois, to shift to the Liberals.
A party needs to win 172 electoral districts, called ridings or seats, to form a majority government that does not rely on smaller parties’ support to stay in power.
Much of the Conservative support is in rural areas where there are fewer seats.
Carney, who covered more than 20 cities in his last week of campaigning, has appeared tired but tried to maintain his exuberance at rallies, attended by 1,000 to 2,000 people, according to party figures. Poilievre’s rallies have been bigger.
Standing on Sunday in front of the Ambassador Bridge connecting Windsor’s Canadian auto hub with Detroit across the border, Carney pointed to the bridge as a symbol of peace and cooperation between the two countries for almost a century.
“That has changed, and it wasn’t us who did the changing … President Trump, the guy over there,” Carney said. “He’s launched a trade war that has literally ruptured the global economy, and in the process, he’s betrayed us.”
Carney’s rallies have attracted mostly older Canadians and featured placards saying “Jamais Le 51” (“Never 51”) – a reference to Trump’s talk of Canada becoming the 51st U.S. state – and “Un Canada Fort” (“A Strong Canada”).
Mentions of Trump have been loudly booed.
Poilievre has attracted more young voters than usual for the Conservatives.
“Time is running out, only one more day to bring home change so that Canadians can afford food and homes and live on safe streets,” Poilievre said at a rally in Oakville, Ontario on Sunday.
Election results will trickle in, starting in eastern provinces, after polls close at staggered times on Monday evening. Ballots are counted by hand.
(Reporting by Rod Nickel and Promit Mukherjee in Ottawa, Nivedita Balu in Toronto and Amanda Stephenson in Calgary, editing by Deepa Babington)
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