By Alan Charlish and John Irish
WARSAW/PARIS (Reuters) – The leaders of France and Poland will hold talks on Ukraine on Thursday, including the possibility of sending European troops there as a security guarantee in the event of a peace deal with Russia, as Europe gears up for the new Trump presidency.
European powers are keen to demonstrate to Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on Jan. 20, that they are willing to assume their share of the burden to end the almost three-year war in Ukraine.
Trump has made clear that he will push for an immediate ceasefire and negotiations to end the conflict. He has also sharply criticised in the past those European allies who failed to spend NATO’s target 2% of their national output on defence.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, whose country is a staunch supporter of neighbouring Ukraine, will host French President Emmanuel Macron for Thursday’s talks in Warsaw.
“Ukraine will be top of the agenda when the two leaders meet and how to make sure that it is able to resist and be in the best position to negotiate (with Russia),” a French diplomatic source said.
One of the issues on the agenda is the idea of sending European troops to Ukraine should there be a ceasefire and peace accord between Ukraine and Russia, two diplomats said.
That would work as a sort of enhanced bilateral security guarantee, given that there is little chance of Ukraine getting NATO membership or even an invitation in the immediate term, but would also show Trump Europe’s willingness to engage directly.
France and Britain already discussed last month the prospect of sending European troops to Ukraine, while there have also been similar talks between Ukraine, Baltic and Scandinavian countries, five European diplomats said.
NO CONSENSUS
“There is no consensus among European countries so the idea would be to create a coalition of 5-8 European countries, which are not dependent on NATO but on a bilateral agreement with Ukraine and are very determined to act,” a source aware of the thinking said.
There are no concrete proposals yet and diplomats said Poland at this stage was not among those considered willing to eventually send troops.
Macron first suggested the idea in February but it was rebuffed specifically by Germany. Plans were then put forward to send non-combat troops to provide training, demining operations or even border control, but those never materialised.
One option in the short-term is to revise that idea, two diplomats said.
“Do we have any other choice? I don’t think there is any plausible scenario where there isn’t an active European participation to implement security guarantees and securitisation of Europe as a whole,” a senior European official said on the prospect of sending troops.
When the war ends, Europe will still face a threat from Russia, “so we will have to take on some of the military burden” for securing Ukraine, the official added.
Finance and foreign ministers from France, Germany and Poland will also meet on Thursday in Warsaw and in Berlin, just weeks before Poland takes over the EU presidency from Hungary.
The talks in Poland and Berlin will look at how to strengthen financial and military support for Ukraine in the immediate term and how Europe can boost defence financing, including through common debt.
A Polish government source said Warsaw had been pushing for increased joint defence financing from the European allies but had previously faced resistance.
“Since Trump’s election, all our friends at the table understood that we were right, because Trump came and they have to step up,” the source added.
(Writing by John Irish; Editing by Gareth Jones)
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