GREEN BAY, WI (WTAQ) – The baptism was hard to watch. That was then, this is now. The Green Bay Packers get another crack at one of the elite franchises in the NFL as the Kansas City Chiefs, the reigning Super Bowl Champions, come to Lambeau Field for a 7:20 PM kickoff under the lights.
In November of 2021, Jordan Love, a year and a half into his pro career, was thrust into his first NFL start when Aaron Rodgers tested positive for COVID-19 just days before the team left for Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs made him look every bit of a novice. A relentless pressure package kept Green Bay off the board until the 4th quarter. The defense did it’s best to help the kid out, can’t say the same for the special teams as Mason Crosby missed one field and had another blocked in the first half. The final score was 13-7. Rodgers was back in the saddle the next week as the Packers made one last run at a Super Bowl only to bow out as the number one seed in the NFC, losing to San Francisco 49ers 13-10 in the Divisional Playoff Round.
One more season as a backup and now Love has eleven starts under his belt as QB1 and he gets another shot at Patrick Mahomes and one of the league’s true blue blood teams. Judging from his play over the past month, leading the Packers to three victories in their last four starts, Love appears much more prepared for the challenge.
More importantly for the team, entering the game 5-6 and only a half game behind both Minnesota and Seattle for an NFC Wild Card, having a young squad play meaningful games in the month of December is going to pay dividends the rest of this season and beyond. Let’s match it up.
When the Packers have the ball.
No Aaron Jones again. He’s been ruled out after suffering a sprained MCL against the Chargers two weeks ago. A.J. Dillon got through a tight groin from early in the week and is good to go. Jayden Reed is questionable with a chest injury. Love will need all the weapons he can find. He’ll also have to find them quickly. I expect Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to dial up more of what he presented two years ago. Combination pressures, zero blitzes and more surprises. Love and the offensive line will have to recognize and react to the rush quickly. There may not be enough time for mid-range or downfield throws so hot reads and check downs will be a big part of the passing game. Kansas City’s run defense has been spotty at times and if the Packers can get Dillon going, play calling rhythm could follow and that’s how the Packers moved the chains against a solid Detroit defense on Thanksgiving Day. With 37 sacks, big down and distance numbers could unleash the Chiefs’ pressure. We’ll see if Love learned his lessons from 26 months ago.
When the Chiefs have the ball.
Two things stand out about Kansas City’s offense. Mahomes remains a magician with his arm and his legs. His ability to escape, extend and create is confounding to defenses. More often than not, when a play needs to be made, Mahomes turns to Travis Kelce. He dominates the target percentage in the passing game and his outstanding connection with his quarterback is often overlooked by the number of TV commercial endorsements and a certain girlfriend he’s been running with. Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry said it’s a lot easier paying extra attention to a perimeter wide receiver than a tight end but it will be interesting to see how he defends Kelce. The top outside target isn’t former Packer Marquez Valdes-Scantling (15 receptions), it’s this year’s second round pick Rashee Rice of SMU. The Packers can’t sleep on Isiah Pacheco, a shifty, speedy running back.
The bottom line.
Can the Packers knock off another Division leader? It’s not out of the question but just like Jared Goff and his lack of ball security on Thankgsiving, they’ll need some help from the Chiefs. Forcing turnovers or decisively winning the hidden yardage field position game with special teams would help the cause. A hard fought, competitive loss can still buoy the team for a final five game stretch, a win just might catapult the Packers into serious contention. Kansas City’s experience should win out.
I like the Chiefs, 27-20.
