A lot of words were written and said this week about Mike McCarthy’s return to Green Bay as Head Coach of the Dallas Cowboys. It’s been a nice distraction from what appears to be a sizeable mismatch in the Week 10 game at Lambeau Field. The Packers are saddled with a five game losing streak, the longest since Aaron Rodgers was a first year starter at quarterback in 2008. They’ve been crippled by injury. Two key starters on defense were moved to the injured reserve list this week. Rashan Gary had season ending ACL surgery and defensive back Eric Stokes was moved on Saturday with a serious ankle and knee injury. The 3-6 Packers are rare underdogs at home as the Cowboys arrive with a 6-2 record, coming off their biggest scoring game of the season and that was two weeks ago, refreshed even more after their bye. All things point to a happy homecoming for McCarthy, the Super Bowl XLV winning Head Coach of the Pack.
Head coaching connections between these two franchises encompasses all three Super Bowl eras in Green Bay. Vince Lombardi arrived in Green Bay in 1959 after serving as offensive coordinator for the New York Giants. A year later, New York’s defensive coordinator and Lombardi colleague, Tom Landry, became the first Head Coach of the expansion Cowboys. They met in the 1966 and ’67 NFL Championship games. Green Bay made the huge defensive stop at the Cotton Bowl to win 34-27 propelling them to the very first Super Bowl and the following year, it was the legendary Ice Bowl, the 21-17 quarterback sneak that delivered a third straight NFL title. Bart Starr’s only playoff loss as Head Coach came after the 1982 strike year Super Bowl tournament opened with a big win over the St. Louis Cardinals at Lambeau. The Cowboys knocked out the Pack the following week 37-26.
When Mike Holgmren’s Packers were ascending to the Super Bowl XXXI title, it was the Cowboys who delivered growing pains, eliminating Green Bay three straight years in the playoffs. In the 1993 Divisional round, it was a 27-17 loss, the next year, it was 35-9 and in the 1995 NFC Championship, the Packers lost 38-27. All three of those games were played in Texas.
McCarthy’s Super Bowl success came in 2010 but he also had playoff success against Dallas later on. The infamous Dez Bryant catch-no catch finish in the 2014 NFC Divisional round 26-21 victory and two years later, the incredible last minute shootout in Dallas. a 34-31 win highlighted by the Rodgers to Jared Cook sideline pass and Mason Crosby’s game winning field goal.
Now McCarthy returns to face Matt LaFleur who is in the midst of his first serious crisis on his head coaching career. How will this one unfold?
When the Packers have the ball.
In the 11th month of the year, the Packers will have to locate number 11 on the Dallas defense. Micah Parsons has taken the league by storm just a year and a half into his career. He is a dominant player that is moved all over the field for maximum impact. He has 8 of the team’s league leading 33 sacks. The offensive line is expected to have it’s preferred five up front which will help. The Cowboys unit, coordinated by Dan Quinn, is the third best scoring defense in the league, allowing 16.6 points a game. The Packers have been scoreboard challenged for weeks. Only Randall Cobb, finishing his stint on IR and Romeo Doubs, idled by his high ankle sprain in Detroit, will be the missing playmakers. Christian Watson has been given a clean bill of health, Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon will all be at Rodgers’ disposal. The question isn’t so much if the Packers can gain yards, it’s can they finish drives? Scoring chances have been derailed by red zone turnovers last week, penalties and mental errors throughout the losing streak. The Packers will need the cleanest execution of the season on Sunday.
When the Cowboys have the ball.
Dallas got it’s offense oiled up just in time for their bye week and once Ezekiel Elliott gets past some nagging injuries, they’ll feel very good about the stretch run to the post-season. Elliot and Tony Pollard give the Cowboys an excellent 1-2 punch on the ground. The Packers rank 29th against the run, thanks in large part to untimely explosive gains of which Dallas is extremely capable. Green Bay’s defensive line has to create standoffs in the trenches to allow what will be the second string of linebackers (outside of Preston Smith) to finish up. Gary is out, De’Vondre Campbell is out, Krys Barnes is out. You’ll see plenty of Isaiah McDuffie, Kingsley Enagbare and even some La’Darius Hamilton who was activated to the game day roster on Saturday. With Rasul Douglas back on the corner, along with Jaire Alexander, look for Dak Prescott to exploit the middle of the secondary. Keisean Nixon will get fist dibs in the slot and Darnell Savage has been beset with very inconsistent play of late. Keep an eye on Noah Brown and tight end Dalton Schultz between the hash marks.
The bottom line.
After an appreciative crowd welcomes back McCarthy, they might think twice by game’s end. A motivated Dallas team is very capable of blowing out the crippled Packers. It will take the cleanest effort of the year and while that’s possible, it probably won’t be enough.
I like the Cowboys 27-20.
