Since 2010, with Aaron Rodgers as the starting quarterback, the Green Bay Packers have been the betting line favorite nearly 150 times, underdogs less than 50. There isn’t much of a track record there to determine just how big of an upset it would be if the 3-4 Packers came out of Highmark Stadium Sunday night with a victory over the 5-1, well rested Buffalo Bills, entering as 10 and a half point favorites, the biggest spread Rodgers has ever faced as a starter.
There’s another historical note siding against the Pack. They’ve never won a regular season game in Western New York. 0 for 6 all time in Buffalo.
The Bills are returning home after exacting some measure of revenge against the Kansas City Chiefs, who knocked them out of the playoffs last year in overtime. It appears Buffalo has come back even stronger this season, outscoring their opponents 176-81 while leading the league in yards per game on offense and fewest yards allowed per game on defense. That, and they’re well rested, coming off their bye week.
So how in the world can a Packer team, struggling mightily to find mistake free consistency on offense, second half consistency on defense, shock the world in prime time?
When the Packers have the ball.
Week two against the Chicago Bears was the only game this season where the Packers had their preferred top five wide receivers playing. Allen Lazard missed the opener, Sammy Watkins pulled his hamstring following that 3 catch, 93 yard night at Lambeau and went on injured reserve. Christian Watson re-injured his hamstring against the Giants in London and Randall Cobb nearly broke his ankle the following week against the Jets. Watkins and Watson return this weekend to team with Romeo Doubs, Amari Rodgers and Samori Toure, not exactly the preferred five.
The left side of the line enters the game questionable. Both David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins has one of three practice days off to protect their healing knees. Another game of Zach Tom on the left side and Yosh Nijman on the right could make the downfield passing game a moot point against the Bills pass rush. They have 19 sacks in 6 games and the pressure has helped the back end chase down 10 interceptions.
The Packers are going to have to find a way to control the ball with Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon getting touches on both handoffs and catches. The Bills linebackers, Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds seem to chase down nearly everything in front of them and to the sideline. Even without ex-Packer Micah Hyde, the secondary creates big plays. Jordan Poyer, who had to drive to Kansas City and back home to protect sore ribs, leads the team with four picks.
If Watson can hit full speed after missing a couple of weeks, he might be able to stretch the field even without making a downfield catch to create space for the running backs or tight ends to find space.
The Packers need positive first down results to give the running game a chance. Third and manageable will also give them a chance to convert and they simply can’t afford a turnover.
When the Bills have the ball.
Josh Allen may be the MVP front runner after six games. He’s thrown 17 touchdown passes already and leads the best team in the AFC in rushing. Green Bay’s first look at him was as a rookie in 2018 when the Packers shut him out 20-0 at Lambeau Field. Allen has developed into the one of the most dynamic playmakers and leaders since. The key for the Packers will be to stay disciplined across the line of scrimmage, being mindful of every possible escape route. With time, Allen will look deep toward Stefon Diggs who has a half dozen TD grabs and Gave Davis who averages an ungodly 27.4 yards a catch. Unlike Green Bay, Buffalo can and does take the top off a secondary, and that’s allowed tight end Dawson Knox to operate underneath. Running back Devin Singletary is a workmanlike player but if the Packers crash the edge too hard, he can spring plays wide.
It’s going to be interesting to see if Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry continues his more aggressive, tight coverage tactics that seem to have re-energized the secondary. This might be a game worth gambling on a blitz or two to create turnover opportunities. The Packer defense is starting to realize the offense needs as many possessions as possible.
The bottom line.
I’m not saying it can’t happen, on any given Sunday….
It will take a colossal effort by Matt LaFeur’s club but stranger things have happened. Coming home 3-5 wouldn’t be the final nail in the Pack’s coffin, but there won’t be much room left for that nail. I’m interested to see if the Packers are playoff worthy, measuring up against one the league’s best. Outside of Philadelphia, I don’t see another team of this caliber left on the schedule.
I like the Bills to keep the Packers down, 27-14.
