The Green Bay Packers can take a big step toward a second straight NFC North Division title in as many years under Matt LaFleur when they host the Chicago Bears at Lambeau Field Sunday night kicking off at 7:20 PM. Despite last week’s loss in Indianapolis, the Packers will bring a 7-3 record into the game, while the Chicago Bears arrive at 5-5 having lost four consecutive games after a hot start for Matt Nagy who captured the Black and Blue title in his first year on the job in 2018.
A three game lead with five to play is a hard gap to close, even with a rematch at Soldier Field on the final week of the regular season.
The series has produced plenty of tight games, six of the last seven have been decided by eight points or less. When the NFL’s oldest rivals have played 200 times, expect ’em close. The Packers have scored 3,465 points while the Bears have put up 3,424, a difference of 41 points or 0.2 points per game since 1921.
When the Packers have the ball.
Just when the Pack thought they’d have their full compliment of weapons back for the stretch run, Marquez Valdes-Scantling turned up with a sore Achilles this week in practice and is questionable for the game. So is center Corey Linsley who’s dealing with an aching back. The return of Allen Lazard helps but it’d be really beneficial if all three top wideouts were full go.
LaFleur said the Bears might have the best defense they’ve faced all year. A deep, physical front and a nasty quartet of linebackers from Khalil Mack to Robert Quinn, Danny Trevethan and Roquan Smith. The Packers can’t let these four control the game. To do that, a firm commitment to the run game will be required. The Packers have a remarkable record when Aaron Jones touches the ball 20 times, he hasn’t come close of late. The offense ran the ball only four times in the second half last week against the Colts. That commitment has to be four quarters firm.
Aaron Rodgers has among the best numbers in the NFL off play action and on deep balls and if Jones and/or Jamaal Williams get consistent yardage, there will be plenty of both come Sunday night. The play action game will create matchups for the tight ends who could have a busy evening and the deep shots are the signature snaps for MVS which is why the Packers are hoping his injury won’t keep him sidelined.
Red zone success will apply a lot of pressure on Chicago’s offense. If the Packers settle for field goals, the Bears can hang around and one miscue could flip the game.
When the Bears have the ball.
For the first time since late September, the ball will be in the hands of Mitchell Trubisky. He was named the starter on Friday by Nagy after Nick Foles struggled with a hip injury through Chicago’s bye week. While he gives Chicago a more mobile option, a lot of pressure should also increase the possibility of a mistake.
Nagy said the run game has to get better, it’s been holding back his offense all year. David Montgomery returns after missing their last game with a concussion. He gives them some hope but hasn’t rushed for more than 60 yards but twice in nine games. Allen Robinson is a nice player on the perimeter and Jimmy Graham looks more enthused than in his two years in Green Bay. But Chicago’s offensive line has been disheveled most of the season and unlike the Packer front which has withstood all kinds of change, the Bears production has fallen off.
Look for Rashan Gary to get more opportunities. Preston Smith’s impact has declined noticeably while Gary’s stock is on the rise.
I’m expecting a rust factor with Trubisky as well. Even though he has plenty of NFL games under his belt, unlike Jacksonville’s quarterback a couple of weeks ago, there will be chances to hasten his decision making and take advantage of errors.
The bottom line.
Three touchdowns from Chicago’s offense in one game has been a lot to ask in 2020. Scoring three or more against that defense is equally as difficult. I think the Packer offense is more capable of hitting that threshold than Chicago’s.
I like the Pack 24-16.
