Fifteen games of the 2020 season have been played and Sunday, the Green Bay Packers will meet the Chicago Bears for the 202nd time over 101 NFL seasons and rarely in the league’s oldest rivalry have the stakes been as high.
Sure there was the 2010 NFC Championship game where the Packers broke the hearts of Bears fans, winning 21-14 at Solider Field, denying the Bears a trip to the Super Bowl won by the hated Pack. The 1941 Western Division Playoff settled the regular season tie of teams with 10-1 records. The Bears won that day 33-14 at Wrigley Field and subsequently crushed the New York Giants 37-9 for their second straight NFL title. The last time these two met in a regular season finale with big playoff implications was in 2013 when the 8-7 Bears needed a win to capture the NFC North title. The 7-7-1 Packers had been reeling ever since the Bears broke the left collarbone of Aaron Rodgers in a mid-season matchup at Lambeau Field. Rodgers returned to the starting lineup for the final game and broke even more hearts by hitting Randall Cobb on a 49 yard touchdown, on 4th and 8 no less in the final minute of the 33-28 victory.
Sunday, on the Chicago lakefront, the Packers will try to lock up the NFC’s number one seed and earn the only first round bye in this season’s pandemic expanded playoff format. The Bears need a win to secure a playoff spot of their own.
It should be a dandy but alas, thanks to Covid-19, for the first time since 1979, I won’t be attending the game in person and that breaks my heart, these are my favorite games of the year because of all that history.
When the Packers have the ball.
Now that the shock of losing David Bakhtiari to a season ending injury on a non-contact play at a walk through practice this week is behind them, the Packers must restructure their offensive line yet again against a Bears front that this time, will have Akiem Hicks coming after Rodgers. Look for Billy Turner to move to left tackle and Rick Wagner to step in again on the right side. It was the lineup the Packers used when Bakhtiari missed three games in middle of the season.
You’ll see tight ends lining up on the left side of the line as well to offer Turner help if need be, but the veteran has played well at three positions this season. Reducing the pressure coming after Rodgers can be accomplished by consistently producing on the ground. The Packers will no doubt turn to Aaron Jones and the fired up rookie A.J. Dillon coming off explosive games against Tennessee last Sunday night. The ground game success has turned the Pack’s play action game into a lethal weapon all year.
The Chicago secondary has been thinned with injuries to Jaylon Johnson and Buster Skrine and Rodgers should take advantage. Davante Adams will no doubt get plenty of attention and if reserves are asked to deal with Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, both very quiet down the stretch, winnable matchups will be there. One or both should have a big impact Sunday.
Head Coach Matt LaFleur said this week one of the big reasons the offense has been consistently producing is the fact that mental mistakes have almost all but been eliminated. Wrong alignments, pre-snap penalties, miscommunications aren’t happening. They’ll need another clean game against an aroused Chicago defense that gave up 41 points in the first meeting this year at Lambeau.
When the Bears have the ball.
Back on November 29, Mitchell Trubisky returned the starting lineup in place of the injured Nick Foles who pushed Trubisky to the bench even after Chicago started the season 5-1. The rust was evident. Since then, his execution has improved significantly with his playmakers coming through as well. David Montgomery has run hard, Allen Robinson is making plays down field, Jimmy Graham is still a red zone threat. The Bears have scored 30 or more points in each of their last 4 games, one was a loss but they’ve reeled off three straight to get them to the brink of the playoffs.
Montgomery ripped off a 54 yard run early against the Packers in that first meeting and the run defense, buoyed by not allowing Derrick Henry a gain of more than 10 last week, has to be dialed in to limit his explosion. Forcing Trubisky to operate in a collapsing pocket is key. He is quick to use his feet and has no qualms about running, picking up a rushing TD in Jacksonville last week. If escape lanes are limited, balls can be forced into trouble and the secondary must pounce on those opportunities.
Defensive coordinator Mike Pettine has told his guys to prepare for the very best of the Bears and despite their recent run of success, they are still ranked just 25th on offense and I’m hard pressed to believe they’ll be able to keep up with the Pack.
The bottom line.
The Packers have done a masterful job all year playing without stars. Adams missed a couple of games, so did Jones, Corey Linsley and even Bakhtiari. The defense had to deal with prolonged absences from the likes of Christian Kirksey, Kenny Clark and Kevin King yet they’ve found a way. There just seems to be a resignation among the Bear faithful that disappointment is coming. Rodgers is 20-5 against Chicago in his career. Even though the Packers know they’ll be home for at least the first post-season game next week with a loss, they also know how vital it will be to get two post-season games at Lambeau Field. The Bears rollercoaster season climbed early, had the dizzying downturn and is rising again but it will come up short one more time against the dreaded visitors from Wisconsin.
I like the Pack 27-23.
